The three scenarios
Gwara Gwara. iSbhujwa. Nayi le Walk
The three Indlulamithi scenarios were launched on 21 June 2018. Each one comprises a different vision of how South Africa’s 2030 future — as a cohesive and coherent nation — might unfold.
In a nation torn between immobility and restless energy, Gwara Gwara embodies a demoralised land or disorder and decay.
Epitomising a loose-limbed, jumpy nation with a frenetic edge, iSbhujwa is a South Africa torn by deepening social divides, daily protests and cynical self-interest.
In a precise sequence of steps, Nayi le Walk choreographs a vision of South Africa where growing social cohesion, economic expansion and a renewed sense of constitutionalism get South Africa going.
Why we use scenarios
Indlulamithi’s scenarios are planning tools that remind South Africans the future is a choice, not an inevitable fate. Scenarios expose and explore the underlying trends and driving forces that impact our trajectory. In doing so, they inspire us to proactively think about the actions we need to take to avoid hazards, as we collectively pursue a desired future.
Quantified tools of foresight
Unlike previous scenarios, each of the Indlulamithi scenarios for South Africa has been quantified. Working together with Applied Development Research Solutions (ARDS), we have developed economic models to address all the key assumptions made in each scenario.
Tracking our progress
Of the three 2030 scenarios, which is most likely to unfold? Each year, Indlulamithi SA Scenarios measures South Africa’s trajectory towards or away from each of the three scenarios.