The Three New Scenarios
Africa’s loudest birds, these noisy foragers are opportunistic expansionists, always on the move. Seeming anxious and skittish, their brash calls warn of danger, real and perceived. They do all they can to survive. Resilient, they build strong nests, returning to the same trees each year to remake their Hadeda homes.
Vultures love a feast but will settle for scraps. Skilled and relentless, their keen eyesight allows them to swoop in wherever opportunities await. They fight off other birds and lash out at smaller scavengers for what they consider theirs. There is little left when they’re done.
Kalahari sociable weavers build the largest tree nests in the world. Cooperatively built nests can house 100 bird families. Their incredible resilience and cooperative nature allows them to thrive and recover from disruptions and disasters. Together, they can overcome the fiercest challenges.
Journeys into our future: South Africa 2024 to 2035
The world is now far hotter, and sea levels are rising faster than expected. Many nations at least try to reduce their carbon emissions, but climate change has made food security in poorer countries more precarious than ever. Pandemics have become more routine.
The global economy has shifted sharply eastwards: China is the world’s largest economy and India is ranked third.
AI-driven technology has democratised access to education and spurred global productivity; it has also disrupted entire industries and eliminated millions of jobs globally.
One in 5 people in the world – nearly 2 billion – live in Africa. In South Africa, only 4 million of the nearly 20 million who voted in 1994 are still alive.
What is South Africa like in 2035?
How prosperous are its people?
How cohesive is its society?
How far has it come in the 40 years since the dawn of democracy?
Many futures are possible; these scenarios capture three possible trajectories for South Africa in 2035.
Why we use scenarios
Indlulamithi’s scenarios are planning tools that remind South Africans the future is a choice, not an inevitable fate. Scenarios expose and explore the underlying trends and driving forces that impact our trajectory. In doing so, they inspire us to proactively think about the actions we need to take to avoid hazards, as we collectively pursue a desired future.
Quantified tools of foresight
Unlike previous scenarios, each of the Indlulamithi scenarios for South Africa has been quantified. Working together with Applied Development Research Solutions (ARDS), we have developed economic models to address all the key assumptions made in each scenario.
