Indlulamithi Barometer - Aggregate
Gwara Gwara
iSbhujwa
Nayi le Walk
The 2019 Indlulamithi Barometer measures trends from July 2018 – June 2019. It shows that South Africa is balanced between the Gwara Gwara and iSbhujwa scenarios, with a trend towards Gwara Gwara. Some indicators point to positive elements of the Nayi le Walk scenario, but these are in the minority.
Indlulamithi Barometer - by Key Driving Force
Nayi le Walk
iSbhujwa
Gwara Gwara
When viewed according to the three key driving forces, the 2019 Barometer shows that the iSbhujwa Scenario remains dominant when considering Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation. iSbhujwa and Gwara Gwara scenarios are equally present in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension, but Gwara Gwara is dominant overall because it is so strong in the Social Inequality dimension.
The indicators making up the 2020 Barometer are presented below. See the methodology report for more information on how each indicator is allocated to a scenario each year. Indicators with insufficient data to make a judgment or outdated information are marked in grey.
The iSbhujwa and Gwara Gwara scenarios are equally present in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension.
Gwara Gwara is dominant overall because it is so strong in the Social Inequality dimension.
The iSbhujwa scenario remains dominant when considering Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation.
Indlulamithi Barometer - Aggregate
Gwara Gwara
iSbhujwa
Nayi le Walk
The 2020 Indlulamithi Barometer measures trends from July 2019-Feb 2020 (pre-Covid-19). It shows that South Africa had passed the half-way mark to the Gwara Gwara scenario even before the start of the pandemic, marking a significant decline in social cohesion compared with 2019. Some indicators point to elements of the iSbhujwa and Nayi le Walk scenarios, but these are in the minority.
Indlulamithi Barometer - by Key Driving Force
Nayi le Walk
iSbhujwa
Gwara Gwara
When viewed according to the three key driving forces, the 2020 Barometer shows that the iSbhujwa Scenario remains dominant when considering Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation. iSbhujwa and Gwara Gwara scenarios are equally present in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension, but Gwara Gwara is dominant overall because it is so strong in the Social Inequality dimension.
The indicators making up the 2020 Barometer are presented below. See the methodology report for more information on how each indicator is allocated to a scenario each year. Indicators with insufficient data to make a judgment or outdated information are marked in grey.
Gwara Gwara and iSbhujwa scenarios are equally present in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension, but Nayi le Walk scenario is represented too.
Gwara Gwara scenario dominates the Social Inequality dimension, except for Nayi le Walk scenario represented in one notable category – Life Expectancy.
The iSbhujwa scenario remains dominant when considering Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation.
Indlulamithi Barometer - Aggregate
Gwara Gwara
iSbhujwa
Nayi le Walk
The 2021 Indlulamithi Barometer measures trends from July 2020 – May 2021, reflecting South Africa’s experience of the Covid 19 pandemic. It shows that South Africa is continuing to move deeper into the Gwara Gwara scenario during the course of the pandemic, marking a continued decline in social cohesion levels compared with 2020. This decline is reflected in the Barometer through the addition of GG+ scenario category which represents a different version of the Gwara Gwara scenario.
Indlulamithi Barometer - by Key Driving Force
Nayi le Walk
iSbhujwa
Gwara Gwara
GG+
When viewed according to the three Key Driving Forces, the 2021 Barometer shows that the Gwara Gwara scenario is for the first time dominant across all Key Driving Forces. In spite of downward shifts in a number of indicators, those indicators which point to the Nayi le Walk scenario in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension have remained stable.
The indicators making up the 2021 Barometer are presented below. See the methodology report for more information on how each indicator is allocated to a scenario each year.
The Gwara Gwara scenario has surged ahead in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension and we show measures fall into the new GG+ scenario.
Gwara Gwara is dominant overall because it is still strong in the Social Inequality dimension.
The iSbhujwa scenario has been usurped by Gwara Gwara in Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation.
Indlulamithi Barometer - Aggregate
Gwara Gwara
iSbhujwa
Nayi le Walk
The Indlulamithi South Africa Scenarios 2030 were launched in June 2018 as a multi-stakeholder, research-driven initiative to provide tools – in the form of scenarios – to focus leaders from different sectors and people from all walks of life on a key question: What would a socially cohesive South Africa look like, and can we achieve it by 2030? The scenarios are intended to support social compacts across all levels and sectors of society.
Indlulamithi Barometer - by Key Driving Force
Nayi le Walk
iSbhujwa
Gwara Gwara
GG+
When viewed according to the three key driving forces, the 2022 Barometer shows that the Gwara Gwara scenario remains dominant across all Key Driving Forces. The darker green GG+ represents a deeper form of Gwara Gwara, which shows how indicators that have been in the Gwara Gwara scenarios for several years are still declining. Overall, 34% of the national indicators fall into GG+ in 2022.
The indicators making up the 2022 Barometer are presented below. See the methodology report for more information on how each indicator is allocated to a scenario each year. Indicators with insufficient data to make a judgment or outdated information are marked in grey.
There was a marked downward trend in this dimension since the previous year, with both Nayi le Walk and Isbhujwa indicators falling into the Gwara Gwara scenario.
Gwara Gwara remains by far the dominant scenario in this dimension, driving the country’s overall trend into this scenario. Most of the Gwara Gwara indicators are in fact in the deepest form of this scenario: GG+.
There is no year-on-year change in the distribution of scenarios for this dimension. Gwara Gwara remains dominant (50%) and half of these indicators (25% of the indicators for this dimension) are in the most dysfunctional version of this scenario: GG+.
Indlulamithi Barometer - Aggregate
Gwara Gwara
iSbhujwa
Nayi le Walk
The 2023 Indlulamithi Barometer measures trends from July 2022 – June 2023. It shows that South Africa is continuing to move deeper into the GG+ scenario (36% in 2022 and now 41% in 2023), marking a continued decline in social cohesion levels. However, the percentage of indicators in the Nayi le Walk scenario has also improved.
Indlulamithi Barometer - by Key Driving Force
Nayi le Walk
iSbhujwa
Gwara Gwara
GG+
When viewed according to the three key driving forces, the 2023 Barometer shows that the Gwara Gwara and GG+ scenarios remain dominant across all Key Driving Forces. The darker green GG+ represents a deeper form of Gwara Gwara, which shows how indicators that have been in the Gwara Gwara scenarios for several years are still declining.
The Gwara Gwara and GG+ scenarios are most pronounced in relation to Social Inequality, as in previous years. This shows that the everyday life of the majority of South Africans is already deeply in the GG+ scenario.
The indicators making up the 2023 Barometer are presented below. See the methodology report for more information on how each indicator is allocated to a scenario each year. Indicators with insufficient data to make a judgment or outdated information are marked in grey.